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TL;DR
Outcome-First Decisions is a framework that guides organizations to assess whether to keep, change, or kill initiatives based on current outcomes. It aims to improve portfolio health by encouraging pruning of underperforming projects.
A new decision-making framework called Outcome-First has been introduced to help organizations evaluate ongoing projects based on their current outcomes, rather than past investments or emotional attachments. This approach emphasizes pruning underperforming initiatives to free capacity and improve overall portfolio health.
Outcome-First is a decision framework that asks a single question: given the current outcome of an initiative, is it worth continuing at its current or adjusted form? It produces three verdicts: keep, change, or kill. The framework is designed to combat the tendency to prolong projects due to sunk costs, identity, or effort justification. It is open source under the AGPL-3.0 license and runs locally, making it accessible for frequent use without additional cost. The core mechanism, called the Worth Filter, encourages forward-looking judgments focused solely on current outcomes, not past investments. The framework aims to close the loop in portfolio management by providing a structured way to prune projects that no longer justify their costs, thus freeing resources for more valuable work.Outcome-First Decisions — keep, change, or kill
The hardest decision isn’t what to start — it’s what to stop. Judge every initiative by the outcome it produces now, not the effort already spent.
Independent commentary, produced with AI assistance under human editorial oversight. The views are the author’s own and may change. Outcome-First Decisions is open source under AGPL-3.0, provided “as is” without warranty; see the repository LICENSE. The framework’s verdicts are reasoning aids based on the inputs given and may be wrong — decision support, not decisions; verify independently before acting. Product and company names are trademarks of their respective owners; mention does not imply endorsement.
Why Outcome-First Decision Framework Changes Portfolio Management
This framework matters because it addresses a common problem in organizations: the persistence of projects that no longer deliver value but continue to consume attention and resources. By focusing on current outcomes, it encourages disciplined pruning, which can lead to more efficient use of capacity and better strategic alignment. Implementing Outcome-First can help organizations avoid the trap of maintaining dead projects driven by emotional or historical reasons, ultimately enabling more agile and focused operations.
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The Need for a Systematic Approach to Project Termination
Many organizations struggle with managing a long tail of ongoing projects that neither succeed nor are actively killed. These projects often persist due to sunk costs, organizational identity, or effort justification, leading to hidden costs in focus, maintenance, and opportunity. Traditional decision-making tends to be backward-looking, emphasizing past investments rather than current value. Outcome-First introduces a forward-looking, outcome-based approach, aiming to embed disciplined pruning into portfolio management. The framework was developed by Thorsten Meyer, who advocates for regular, honest reviews to prevent portfolio silting and resource drain.
“The hardest decision in any portfolio isn’t what to start. It’s what to stop.”
— Thorsten Meyer, creator of Outcome-First
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Uncertainties About Implementation and Effectiveness
It is not yet clear how organizations will adapt the framework in practice, especially regarding accurate outcome measurement and avoiding premature killing of slow-start initiatives. The effectiveness of the Worth Filter depends heavily on selecting appropriate metrics, which can be subjective or misused. Additionally, the framework cannot eliminate emotional resistance to ending projects, and its success relies on honest and disciplined application.
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Next Steps for Adoption and Testing of Outcome-First
Organizations interested in Outcome-First are encouraged to review the open-source framework on GitHub and pilot it within their portfolios. Further empirical studies and case reports are expected to evaluate its impact on portfolio health and resource efficiency. Continuous refinement of outcome metrics and integration into existing decision processes will be key to broader adoption. The creator suggests regular reviews and training to embed the discipline of outcome-based pruning into organizational culture.
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Key Questions
How does Outcome-First differ from traditional project evaluation?
It emphasizes current outcomes rather than past investments, encouraging organizations to prune projects that no longer justify their costs based on present performance.
Can Outcome-First help prevent organizations from holding onto failing projects?
Yes, by focusing on outcomes and making kill decisions easier, it reduces emotional resistance to ending projects that do not deliver value.
Is the framework applicable to all types of projects?
It is designed as a general decision tool, but its effectiveness depends on the ability to accurately measure outcomes relevant to each initiative.
What are the risks of using Outcome-First?
Risks include mismeasurement of outcomes, premature termination of slow-start projects, and emotional or political pushback against killing initiatives.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
