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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Oct. 30 after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, despite strong third-quarter growth in data center and AI sales. The decline reduced the market value of the U.S. government’s Intel shares by about $11.4 billion in one day, although the holding remained worth substantially more than the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, closing at $65.76 after the chipmaker issued a fourth-quarter forecast below analyst expectations. The plunge cut the market value of the U.S. government’s 433.3 million-share stake by about $11.4 billion in one day, though the shares were still worth far more than the government’s $8.9 billion purchase price.
Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier and above its own guidance. Adjusted earnings were 52 cents per share, compared with the company’s forecast of 38 cents. Its adjusted gross margin was 44.1%, also above its guidance. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, which Intel described as the segment’s strongest growth in 15 years.
The outlook overshadowed those results. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, with a midpoint of $15.5 billion, versus analysts’ expectation of $17.1 billion, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. The company projected adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, below the 43 cents analysts expected, and an adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter.
Intel closed Thursday at $92.07 before opening sharply lower Friday. Yahoo Finance calculated that the move erased nearly $140 billion from Intel’s market value. Based on the government’s 433.3 million shares, valued at $20.47 each when acquired, the holding was worth about $39.9 billion at Thursday’s close and about $28.5 billion at Friday’s close. Those figures imply a one-day decline of roughly $11.4 billion; CNBC described the loss as about $12 billion.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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AI Demand Brings a Two-Sided Squeeze
The results show how AI investment is affecting Intel unevenly. Demand for server processors lifted Data Center and AI revenue, but the company said demand for memory from AI data centers is contributing to higher memory prices. Those costs can make computers more expensive and weigh on PC purchases, an important market for Intel.
Intel said PC chip revenue fell 5% in the third quarter and expects it to decline by more than 20% from the third quarter to the fourth. That forecast points to a near-term cost of the same AI buildout supporting the company’s data-center business. The lower revenue and margin outlook also matter to Intel’s investment plans: chief financial officer David Zinsner warned that positive free cash flow next year was unlikely, according to the supplied report.
The government’s holding makes the selloff a public-finance story as well as a company and market event. The stake’s value fell sharply, but that market-price change is not the same as a realized loss: the government still held the shares, and at Friday’s close they remained worth about $19.6 billion more than the $8.9 billion paid.
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The U.S. government acquired 433.3 million Intel shares in August 2025 at $20.47 per share, for a total of about $8.9 billion. The source report says the purchase was funded with chip grants Intel had previously been promised. At Friday’s closing price of $65.76, the holding remained worth roughly 3.2 times its purchase cost, before any accounting or transaction considerations.
The selloff was unusually steep by the account provided. Yahoo Finance’s comparison of Intel closing prices dating to May 1973 found only one larger daily fall: a nearly 30% decline on July 5, 1974. CNBC also characterized Friday as the stock’s worst day since the 1970s. The shares had risen sharply earlier in 2026, reaching a record on June 22, and were still up nearly 80% for the year after Friday’s fall, according to Yahoo Finance’s calculations.
Intel’s decline came amid a weak session for other technology shares. CNBC reported the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% on Friday, while Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom fell more than 5% and Qualcomm declined 11%. The broader market moves provide context, but Intel’s own forecast was the immediate focus in the supplied reporting.
““Year-to-date system end-point prices have increased significantly.””
— Intel chief executive Lip-Bu Tan
The Scale of the PC and Factory Risks
The company’s forecast identifies pressure on PC demand and lower margins, but the supplied information does not establish how long memory prices will remain elevated or how much they will affect computer sales. Nor does it specify how quickly Intel could increase server-chip output to meet demand. Those factors will shape whether data-center growth can offset weakness in its PC business.
The source also reports that a deadly accident at an Intel factory in Israel is expected to reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million. The material provided does not give further details about the accident, its timing, or the operational effects on the facility. The potential timing and scale of new commitments from outside customers to use Intel’s manufacturing services are also unclear.
The government’s daily change in stake value is based on share prices, not a sale. The supplied information does not indicate that Washington sold any shares or realized a loss. The $11.4 billion figure is an estimate from the reported share count and closing prices; CNBC’s reported estimate was about $12 billion.
What Investors Will Watch Next
The next test is whether Intel can deliver its fourth-quarter forecast and explain the causes of the expected drop in revenue and gross margin. Investors will also look for updates on server-chip supply, PC demand and the effect of memory costs as the company reports further results.
Intel’s ability to attract outside customers to its factories remains another key measure of its manufacturing plans. The supplied report does not identify a new customer commitment or a date for one. The outlook for free cash flow will also bear watching after Zinsner’s warning that positive free cash flow next year was unlikely.
For Washington, the immediate change is a lower quoted value for its still-held stake, not a confirmed sale. Its value will continue to move with Intel’s share price, while the company’s next operating updates will help show whether the third-quarter data-center growth can be sustained alongside pressure on PC sales and margins.
Key Questions
Why did Intel shares fall after reporting revenue growth?
The fourth-quarter forecast missed analyst expectations. Intel projected revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, compared with the $17.1 billion analysts expected, and forecast lower adjusted earnings and gross margin.
How much did the U.S. government’s Intel stake lose in value?
The stake’s estimated market value fell from about $39.9 billion on Thursday to $28.5 billion on Friday, a decline of roughly $11.4 billion based on the reported share count and closing prices. CNBC put the one-day decline at about $12 billion.
Did the government lose more than it invested?
No. The decline was in the stake’s market value, not a reported sale. At Friday’s close, the shares were worth about $28.5 billion, compared with the government’s $8.9 billion purchase price.
What did Intel report about its AI business?
Intel said Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% year over year to $7.3 billion in the third quarter. At the same time, the company cited memory costs and weaker PC demand as pressures on its broader outlook.
What could determine Intel’s performance over the next year?
The source report identifies server-chip production, memory prices and PC demand, and whether outside customers sign up to use Intel’s factories, as key areas to watch. Intel’s expected free-cash-flow performance is another concern.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
